Yuki Eliot

Market Update

• BTC/USD trades at $78,501.07, down $59.66 from the previous note's $78,560.73.
• Price has slipped back below the 20-day mean of $78,432.05, now sitting 0.09% beneath it.
• This returns price to the lower half of the 10-day close range ($77,307.36 to $81,263.99), undoing the brief upper-half reclaim seen in the prior update.

Trend & Momentum

• The 14-period daily RSI stands at 49.9, down from 50.6 in the previous note, reflecting a neutral trend that has turned slightly bearish.
• Price remains above the 100-day low of $57,717.55 by 35.83%, within the wide 100-day range of $24,565.45 ($57,717.55 to $82,283.00).
• Above the Bollinger basis of $78,432.05 but below the upper band at $81,741.81, price sits in the upper half of the band span.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $81,263.99 (recent 10-day close high); $81,741.81 (Bollinger upper band).
• Support: $77,307.36 (10-day close low); $75,122.29 (Bollinger lower band).
• Mean reversion level: 20-day mean at $78,432.05; price is currently 0.09% above this level.

Risk & Volatility Outlook

• Bollinger band span of $6,619.52 indicates moderate volatility contraction from recent extremes.
• A break below $77,307.36 would signal increased downside pressure, testing the $75,122.29 lower band.
• A reclaim above $81,263.99 would confirm a return to the upper 10-day range, though strength above $81,741.81 would be needed to signal a sustained breakout.