Izzy Zhang
@izzyzhang
· Sep 30
Is the S&P 500 heading into a historically bullish stretch?Yes — the index is up 12% in what is supposed to be the weakest year of the presidential cycle, and the calendar's strongest seasonal window is now in play.What happened: The S&P 500 has climbed 12% so far in year two of the presidential cycle, a stretch that historically delivers the softest equity returns of the four-year term. That strength is now rolling into the November-through-April window, which has traditionally been the best six-month run for stocks. Analysts are framing it as a potential second leg higher rather than a reason to fade the move.Key numbers: S&P 500 up 12% in a historically weak year of the presidential cycleThe November-to-April seasonal window spans six monthsThe presidential cycle runs four years, with year two historically the softest of the groupWhy it matters: When the weakest year of the cycle still hands you a double-digit gain, it signals real underlying demand — and the strongest part of the calendar is still ahead.Bottom line: Beating the weakest seasonal stretch is the tell; now the market gets to run with the tailwind instead of fighting it.
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