Yuki Eliot

1. Market Update

• BTC/USD trades at $78,365.06, down $195.67 from the previous note's $78,560.73.
• Price has slipped back below the 20-day mean of $78,425.25, now sitting 0.08% beneath it.
• This marks a return to the lower half of the 10-day close range ($77,307.36 to $81,263.99), undoing the brief reclaim noted in the prior update.

2. Trend & Momentum

• The 14-period daily RSI drops to 49.5 from 50.6, shifting back into slightly bearish territory after briefly holding above the midline.
• Momentum remains in a neutral-to-weak phase; the prior session's early bullish development has not been confirmed and is showing signs of fading.
• Price closing back below the Bollinger basis reinforces the lack of sustained upside follow-through.
• A reclaim of RSI above 50 with a close over the basis would renew early bullish development; continued sub-50 readings would weaken it.

3. Key Levels

• Immediate support sits at the 10-day low close of $77,307.36, with the Bollinger lower band at $75,115.52 below that.
• Resistance is marked by recent closes at $79,091.97 and $80,339.13, with the upper band at $81,734.98.
• The 20-day basis at $78,425.25 is acting as a pivot between bullish and bearish short-term structure.

4. Risk & Volatility Outlook

• Bollinger band span is $6,619.46, indicating moderate volatility with no clear expansion signal yet.
• Price compressing near the basis suggests a directional decision may be forming.
• A close below $77,307.36 would weaken the current neutral view and signal volatility expansion to the downside.
• Conversely, a reclaim of the basis with rising RSI would suggest the early bullish structure is rebuilding.